Sustainability Foresight: Reflexive Gestaltung von Transformationsprozessen in deutschen Versorgungssystemen

Jan-Peter Voß, Kornelia Konrad, Bernhard Truffer

Vortrag auf der ersten Konferenz des „Netzwerks TA“: „Technik in einer fragilen Welt. Die Rolle der Technikfolgenabschätzung“, 24. - 26. November 2004, Berlin

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s utility regimes have entered into a process of accelerating structural change with liberalisation, privatisation and internationalisation playing a central role. Structural dynamics create opportunities for giving shape to sustainable configurations but it also entails the risk of new path dependencies with adverse ecological, social or economic impacts. Strategies are required to shape this transformation process with a long-term perspective. But there are fundamental challenges: (a) uncertainty about complex dynamics of socio-technical change, (b) ambivalence of sustainability goals against the background of scientific uncertainty and conflicting values and (c) distributed steering capacities among actors with heterogeneous interests.

The paper presents Sustainability Foresight as an approach to deal with these challenges. It is discussed in light of process experience and interim results from an experimental application in the German utility sector (electricity, natural gas, water, telecommunications). The method aims at providing a platform for collective, future oriented learning across the different action domains of production, consumption and regulation. It comprises three phases

1. Transformation dynamics: Exploration of alternative paths of transformation in participatory scenario workshops, identification of highly dynamic fields of innovation.
2. Sustainability assessment: Elicitation of evaluation criteria held by different stakeholders in order to identify critical innovations with respect to sustainability impacts.
3. Strategies: Analysis of options and constraints for actors to shape transformation, development of measures to modulate innovation processes with respect to sustainability.

The general approach is related to participatory foresight methodology and constructive technology assessment. Yet, it is not oriented towards a focal technology or one focal actor, but addresses structural patterns on the sector level and collective goals and action capacities on a societal level. And it includes a third phase beyond scenario building and assessment that contains cooperative strategy development with participation of stakeholders.

In conclusion we discuss achievements of the Sustainability Foresight approach against the background of its limitations such as the criticality of selecting participants, diffusion of foresight results into everyday practices and resource intensity of the procedure. Based on this we present recommendations for further applications of the proposed method.

Kontakt

Jan-Peter Voß
Öko-Institut e.V.
Institut für angewandte Ökologie
Novalisstr. 10
10115 Berlin
Tel.: +49 (0) 30 / 28 04 86 80
Fax: +49 (0) 30 / 28 04 86 88
E-Mail: j.voss@oeko.de

Dr. Kornelia Konrad, Dr. Bernhard Truffer
EAWAG
Centre for Innovation Research in the Utility Sector
CH-6047 Kastanienbaum
E-Mail: kornelia.konrad@eawag.ch, bernhard.truffer@eawag.ch
Internet: http://www.cirus.ch;   http://www.greenhydro.ch;   http://www.eawag.ch

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